Gary Armida's Blog
The winter free agent signing period is always fascinating. Already, the relief pitcher market is beginning to take shape in favor of the players. Reports have the Giants and Jeremy Affeldt agreeing to a three year with a speculated $6 million salary per season for the 33 year old left hander. The Dodgers gave Brandon League three years and a total of $22.5 million.The Rays gave Joel Peralta $6 million over two years.
Even utility infielders (Maicer Izturis 3 years, $10 million) and backup catchers (David Ross 2 years, $6.2 million) are getting good money early on. The market, at least for the very beginning, seems to be set quite high. Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke were always going to get their money, but given the scarcity of talent available this offseason and the new television revenue streams, salaries look to be a bit higher than in recent years.
This type of market does force teams to make the difficult decision between landing their desired player and overpaying for that player. Certain teams can afford to do so--Angels, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals--but some teams like the Rays, Mets, Pirates, and A’s cannot take that risk.
As the market begins to evolve, one prominent name is Mike Napoli, the catcher/first base/designated hitter who will be entering his age 31 season after spending five years with the Angels and the last two with the Rangers. Napoli’s five seasons with the Angels were spent in more or less a part time role as he never seemed to get Manager Mike Scioscia’s full trust behind the plate. The result was becoming one of the more underrated offensive catchers in the sport. Few catchers, even in a part time role can compile a slash line of .251/.346/.485, which is what Napoli did in 506 games as an Angel.
Napoli is one of the more classic catcher home run hitters. When he gets extra base hits, they are typically home runs. He has never hit more than 25 doubles in a season, but has hit as few as 9 doubles twice during his career. But, he has topped 20 home runs in each of the last five seasons, even in as few as 78 games. A catcher who hits home runs and has posted an on base percentage of at least .343 in six of his seven seasons is quite valuable to a team.
His trade to Texas before the 2011 season gave him the perfect environment to work in. The Ballpark at Arlington is one of the better offensive parks in the sport. Hitting in a lineup that features Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Adrian Beltre, Napoli flourished in 2011, posting his career best season of .320/.414/.631 with 25 doubles and 30 home runs. In the 2011 playoffs, Napoli was the Rangers most consistent hitter, batting .327 with 3 home runs and 15 RBI.
2012 wasn’t quite as good as Napoli battled injuries for most of the season, but still managed his typical 24 home runs and .343 on base percentage. His batting average was just .227, a career low, and his strikeout rate rose to a career high 30 percent. When healthy, however, Napoli was as good as his 2011 season. In April, he hit 7 home runs while posting an OPS of .909. Then, he spent most of the season struggling until he finally found some semblance of health in September when he hit another 7 home runs and posted an OPS of 1.051.
The Rangers didn’t offer him a qualifying offer and now Napoli is on the open market. He is on a very thin catching market. Russell Martin and AJ Pierzynski are the only two catchers available. Martin will be 30 years old and is coming off a good power year, but was poor in almost every other statistical area. After being one of the better offensive catchers in the sport, Martin has hit just .224/.317/.405 over his last two seasons. Pierzynski is coming off a career year, but is turning 36 years old. His 27 home runs were a career high and given the rest of his 15 year career resume, they look to be the aberration.
Where Mike Napoli fits into the catching market is difficult to say as few teams view him as a full-time catcher. For his career, he has thrown out 24 percent of would-be base stealers and he has gained a reputation of “being better than expected” behind the plate. But, he is coming off of two consecutive seasons where he had spent time on the disabled list. He is on the other side of 30. Injuries, defensive regression, and even some offensive regression can be expected.
That still doesn’t negate the fact that Mike Napoli is the best free agent catcher on the market. Consider that only ten teams received an on base percentage higher than .330 from their catchers. Fewer than half of Major League Baseball teams had their catchers slug over .400 or had a wOBA over .310. Only half of the league had catchers hit over 20 home runs. Among the three free agent catchers, only Mike Napoli has a track record that almost guarantees an improvement in catcher production. There is value in that.
Also making Napoli attractive is that he can play first base and can be a designated hitter. Ideally, having him catch 80 to 100 games and split time at first and designated hitter for another 40 to 60 games would give teams good production and a dependable home run presence in the middle of the order while keeping him relatively healthy.
He’s a perfect fit for the Yankees or Red Sox. He hits well in both stadiums, posting a 1.156 OPS in New York and a 1.107 OPS in Fenway and can fill the role of part time catcher, part time first baseman quite well. In New York, he could also DH, something he wouldn’t do much of in Boston. The Mariners are also in need of offense, making Napoli an ideal fit. The Mariners are moving the fences in which would help Napoli’s .779 OPS in Safeco Field.
Of course, there are the outliers, the teams who don’t seem to have a need, but could see Napoli as a power addition to their lineups. The Astros need a designated hitter and power at just about every position. They could overpay as they begin their first season in the American League. The Blue Jays were the team that traded Napoli away for Frank Francisco, but they could use him. The White Sox, if they lose Pierzynski, could have interest.
Napoli and his agent will now be playing the market. Do they wait and see if the market will yield more money? Or do they strike while the spending seems to be more free? Perhaps the best course of action is to wait until Josh Hamilton signs. After that, Napoli will provide as much power and as much on base skills as any other free agent on the market. Other players like Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and BJ Upton will get longer deals and more money. But, in the short term, Napoli will provide better production from the catcher position.
Looking at most analyst’s free agent rankings, Napoli is usually listed behind the three players mentioned above. But, he is a consistent source of home run power and on base percentage. And, most likely, he comes cheaper than those three, making him once again an underrated player.
Gary Armida
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He also isn't a good fit for the Yankees. He won't be able to DH or play at 1st more than once, maybe twice a week (A-Rod and Jeter usually DH twice a week each, add the typical half day off for Cano, Teixeira and Granderson), so Napoli would have to catch at least 5 times a week and he can't do that. The Yankees showed during the past 2 years that they prefer catchers that can acutally catch. Russell Martin is WAY more valuable than Napoli just because he can catch basically every day, is a great defender and still hits out homers every now and then.
You also mention the Yankees have money to spend. That's wrong, haven't you heard about their 2014 budget!? Napoli is probably the last player they would spend their money on.
Napoli's only value is his offense as a catcher. Nobody views him as a catcher so there goes his value. Fantasy baseball ≠ real baseball. He's an average DH and a below average 1B offensively, add his bad defense and the fact that he's one of the slowest baserunners I've ever. He also strikes out a ton and is injured pretty often. Actually Napoli is the prototype of an overrated player when you think about it. Just stick Jim Thome behind the plate and you have the same outcome.
Napoli is only useful for teams that have an open DH spot and/or nobody at 1st. What teams do need those? Red Sox, Astros, Mariners, Indians, maybe Twins, A's as well. That's it. I'd be surprised if Napoli signs with another team.